Gold may be inching its way back to $1,200 per troy ounce but one major bank is saying shorting the yellow metal is one of the best ideas for 2015.
In a recent report, Credit Suisse global head of technical analysis David Sneddon makes the case for gold to trade down to $950 by the end of next year. That would mean a 20 percent drop from Tuesday's prices.
In the last two years, the price of bullion has declined 30 percent, and it's 37 percent off its 2011 record high.
(Watch: Why is Putin buying gold?)
But can gold sink to $950 in the next 13 months? One trader believes so and has even taken a position on it.
"I am short gold long term," said David Seaburg, head of sales trading at Cowen and Company. Though he did predict a short-term pop for gold on "Talking Numbers" two weeks ago, he believes the metal is headed down.
"You're going to have little pockets of trades that occur as we get more global uncertainty," Seaburg said. "But ultimately I think the trajectory for gold is down, and I do believe that being short it is the trade right now."
(Read: Gold ends near $1,200 on soft dollar; highest since Oct)
Seaburg cites several reasons why gold is in trouble. With foreign central banks adding stimulus to their economies, their currencies are depreciating against the U.S. dollar. A stronger greenback is negative for dollar-denominated bullion. As well, inflation is not a concern so the need for gold to be a safe-haven asset is diminished.
"I can make an argument right now that U.S. equities are right now the ultimate safe-haven asset," Seaburg said. "I am a short-seller of gold and I think it's going a lot lower. I think $950 is definitely in sight."
The technicals corroborate Seaburg's thesis, said Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co.
"Gold has been trying to stabilize for the last year but I don't see this as a very strong base," he said, looking at a chart of gold. Wald considers a downward turn in the 200-day moving average and the recent drop below $1,200 per ounce as a negative signs, too. "That is indicating a resumption of this long-term downtrend that started in 2012," he said.
Gold is also about to hit resistance at its 50-day moving average, currently at $1,210. "I see this as a great time to sell gold," Wald said.
- Gold Investing
- Finance
- David Sneddon
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