miércoles, 5 de noviembre de 2014

It was a lackluster trading session for U.S. equities

…with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials holding around all-time highs reached Friday, while strength in semiconductors boosted the Nasdaq Composite Index to highs not seen since early 2000 (but markets were little changed).

The dollar surged against rivals on better manufacturing data (extending last week gains after Japan QE move), which sent oil prices down to its lowest level since June 2012 (closed below $79).

HammerstoneReport Closing ReCap 11/3/14

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martes, 4 de noviembre de 2014

AngloGold Ashanti (AU) in Focus: Stock Moves Up 22.4%


AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU) was a big mover last session, as its shares rose over 22% on the day. The move came on solid volume too with far more shares changing hands than in a normal session. This reverses the recent downtrend for the company, as the stock is now down over 13% in the past one-month time frame.

Over the last 30 days, the company did not witness any estimate revision and the Zacks Consensus Estimate also remained unchanged. Yesterday's price action is encouraging though, so make sure to keep a close watch on this firm in the near future.

AngloGold Ashanti currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) while its Earnings ESP is 0.00%.

Better-ranked gold mining stocks include Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG), Lake Shore Gold Corp. (LSG) and Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM). While Pretium Resources sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Lake Shore Gold and Newmont Mining Corp. carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report >>

ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD (AU): Free Stock Analysis Report

NEWMONT MINING CORP (NEM): Free Stock Analysis Report

LAKE SHORE GOLD CORP (LSG): Free Stock Analysis Report

PRETIUM RESOURCES INC (PVG): Free Stock Analysis Report

Zacks Investment Research

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Anglogold Ashanti (AU) In A Perilous Reversal


Editor’s Note: Any reference to TheStreet Ratings and its underlying recommendation does not reflect the opinion of TheStreet, Inc. or any of its contributors including Jim Cramer or Stephanie Link.

Trade-Ideas LLC identified
Anglogold Ashanti (
AU) as a “perilous reversal” (up big yesterday but down big today) candidate. In addition to specific proprietary factors, Trade-Ideas identified Anglogold Ashanti as such a stock due to the following factors:

  • AU has an average dollar-volume (as measured by average daily share volume multiplied by share price) of $40.9 million.
  • AU has traded 185,421 shares today.
  • AU is down 4.3% today.
  • AU was up 22.4% yesterday.

EXCLUSIVE OFFER: Get the inside scoop on opportunities in AU with the Ticky from Trade-Ideas. See the FREE profile for AU NOW at Trade-Ideas

More details on AU:

AngloGold Ashanti Limited operates as a gold mining and exploration company. It also produces silver, uranium oxide, and sulphuric acid as by-products. The stock currently has a dividend yield of 0.6%. Currently there is 1 analyst that rates Anglogold Ashanti a buy, no analysts rate it a sell, and 1 rates it a hold.

The average volume for Anglogold Ashanti has been 2.6 million shares per day over the past 30 days. Anglogold Ashanti has a market cap of $3.4 billion and is part of the basic materials sector and metals & mining industry. Shares are down 29.4% year-to-date as of the close of trading on Friday.

STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more.

TheStreetRatings.com Analysis:

TheStreet Quant Ratings rates Anglogold Ashanti as a
sell. The company’s weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its generally high debt management risk, poor profit margins and generally disappointing historical performance in the stock itself.

Highlights from the ratings report include:

  • The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.24 is relatively high when compared with the industry average, suggesting a need for better debt level management.
  • The gross profit margin for ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD is currently lower than what is desirable, coming in at 33.14%. It has decreased from the same quarter the previous year. Along with this, the net profit margin of -5.91% is significantly below that of the industry average.
  • AU’s stock share price has done very poorly compared to where it was a year ago: Despite any rallies, the net result is that it is down by 47.69%, which is also worse that the performance of the S&P 500 Index. Investors have so far failed to pay much attention to the earnings improvements the company has managed to achieve over the last quarter. Naturally, the overall market trend is bound to be a significant factor. However, in one sense, the stock’s sharp decline last year is a positive for future investors, making it cheaper (in proportion to its earnings over the past year) than most other stocks in its industry. But due to other concerns, we feel the stock is still not a good buy right now.
  • ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD reported significant earnings per share improvement in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. This company has reported somewhat volatile earnings recently. But, we feel it is poised for EPS growth in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD swung to a loss, reporting -$6.07 versus $1.70 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($0.51 versus -$6.07).
  • The company’s current return on equity greatly increased when compared to its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a signal of significant strength within the corporation. Compared to other companies in the Metals & Mining industry and the overall market on the basis of return on equity, ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD has outperformed in comparison with the industry average, but has underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500.
  • You can view the full Anglogold Ashanti Ratings Report.

STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more.


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For more information on Anglogold Ashanti Ltd click any of the following:

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    Ratings

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    Comparison

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  • Anglogold Ashanti Ltd Income Statement

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lunes, 3 de noviembre de 2014

DELiA*s Rebounds As Reports Suggest Delisting May Be Imminent





Value Walk

11/03/14 – 02:17 PM EST

Billionaire stock picks dELiA*s, Inc. NASDAQ:
DLIA, AngloGold Ashanti Limited ADR NYSE:
AU and Enzon Pharmaceuticals Inc NASDAQ:
ENZN made big gains early in the day this Monday. Moving in the opposite direction are Corinthian Colleges Inc NASDAQ:
COCO, American Realty Capital Properties Inc NASDAQ:
ARCP and Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings NYSE:
LH.

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dELiA*s

dELiA*s Climbs Despite Delisting Reports

dELiA*s, Inc.
(DLIA) climbed +36% early in the day, though today’s boost may not be enough to
save it from delisting – which
media outlets have suggested could be imminent. In the
Tiger Global portfolio since the fourth quarter of 2013, DLIA has declined -83.25% year-to-date.

AngloGold Ashanti Limited ADR
(AU) gained +21.16% after
reporting a sharp rise in profits for the third quarter. The gold mining company, a long-time
John Paulson investment, is still down -14.51% for the year.

Enzon Pharmaceuticals Inc
(ENZN) got a +12.09% boost early in the day, though it is still down -14.2% YTD. The biopharmaceutical company has been in
Carl Icahn’s investment portfolio across several quarters, and fellow billionaire
George Soros initiated a position in the firm in Q2.

American Realty Capital Properties Tumbles

Corinthian Colleges Inc
(COCO) dipped -9.78% this Monday. The for-profit educational company has faced a significant amount of criticism in recent months, and last week,
yet another lawsuit was filed against the firm. The new Q2 Soros buy has declined -90.89% YTD.

American Realty Capital Properties Inc
(ARCP) fell -8.34% after this morning’s
announcement that a deal with RCS Capital Corp. for the purchase of Cole Capital is off. ARCP, another Q2 acquisition for Soros, has lost -33.58% over the past month.

Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings
(LH) dipped -7.93% in the wake of
news that it will buy Covance Inc. in a deal worth 6.1 billion. Despite today’s drop, the clinical laboratory company, a
Ray Dalio holding, has gained +9.92% this year.

The post
dELiA*s Rebounds as Reports Suggest Delisting May Be Imminent appeared first on
ValueWalk.

-By iBillionaire

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NYSE stocks posting largest percentage increases


NEW YORK (AP) — A look at the 10 biggest percentage gainers on New York Stock Exchange at 1 p.m.:

Covance Inc. rose 25.4 percent to $100.17.

Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. rose 21.6 percent to $10.06.

JMP Group Inc. rose 9.0 percent to $7.96.

Hi-Crush Partners LP rose 8.4 percent to $46.75.

Adeptus Health rose 7.5 percent to $35.66.

World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. rose 7.4 percent to $13.27.

King Digital Entert rose 7.3 percent to $12.23.

MPLX LP rose 7.2 percent to $71.50.

AmREIT Inc. rose 7.0 percent to $26.38.

Emerge Energy Services LP rose 6.1 percent to $93.77.

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Gold: big levels and interesting company comments

Gold is flirting with breaking below that $1200/ounce level again.  As the last 3 year chart below for the yellow metal shows this is an important level to be paying attention to – back in July and December 2013 it marked the bottom ahead of a good trading upswing.  

Source: BigCharts.com

So what to think?  Well putting aside conspiracy this and conspiracy that we have to start with the Fed.  The end of QE and a push up for the dollar is classically not the best backdrop for gold.  Add in no immediately obvious inflation and a good GDP print the above price action cannot be the greatest surprise.  

Still there are a number of aspects that make gold a really interesting potential investment today.  Beyond various central banks around the world – including those in China and Russia – continuing to accumulate the 'barbarous relic' (as Keynes once put it) we have gold stocks.  

I came across an interesting chart the other date showing the price to book value for gold stocks with a $1 billion plus market cap.  Thanks to various write downs over the last couple of years the grouping is not quite back to the sub book rating seen about eighteen months ago but, after the last couple of shocking performance days for the space, it is getting ever closer.  

Source: Casey Research, Capital IQ

By my reckoning three gold companies (Barrick Gold, Yamana Gold and New Gold) of a reasonable size have reported their latest quarterly thoughts over the last day or so.  Aside from all three suffering a noticeable reversal in their share price today it was a comment by Barrick Gold specifically that caught my attention.  If business – at some level – is about making profit then the continued reduction in the company's 'all in sustainable cost' (AISC) of producing gold shows even at a depressed low sentiment gold price there is some hope.  

Source: Barrick Gold Q3 presentation document.

As it happens I have never been a huge fan of Barrick Gold versus some of the other large cap peers such as Randgold for example, but even I am impressed by some of their initiatives.  

In a low sentiment area when even companies you have struggled with in the past start making some sense then it is generally time to start paying attention.  I added to my gold stock positions today.   

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Gold Stocks Technical Analysis - New Gold, Randgold Resources, Golden Star Resources, Cia de Minas Buenaventura, and Agnico Eagle Mines


LONDON, November 3, 2014 /PRNewswire/ –

Investor-Edge has initiated coverage on the following equities: New Gold Inc. (NYSE MKT: NGD), Randgold Resources Ltd (GOLD), Golden Star Resources Ltd (NYSE MKT: GSS), Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA (BVN), and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM). Free research on these five companies can be accessed at: http://investor-edge.com/register. On Friday, October 31, 2014, the NASDAQ Composite ended at 4,630.74, up 1.41%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.13%, to finish the day at 17,390.52, and the S&P 500 closed at 2,018.05, up 1.17%. The gains were broad based as all the sectors ended the session in positive. The S&P 500 Materials Sector Index ended the day at 304.39, up 1.87%, with the index also advancing 1.34% in the previous three trading sessions. Register for your complimentary reports on these five stocks at:  

http://investor-edge.com/register

On Friday, shares in New Gold Inc. fluctuated between $3.52 and $3.70 before ending the session 5.51% lower at $3.60, hitting a new 52-week low of $3.52. The stock reported a trading volume of 7.02 million shares, much above its three months average volume of 3.17 million shares. New Gold Inc.’s shares have plummeted 17.62% in the previous three trading sessions, 29.69% in the last one month and 31.30% on YTD basis. The company’s stock closed below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $5.30 and $5.64, respectively. Moreover, shares of New Gold Inc. have a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 21.27. Sign up and read the free notes on NGD at:

http://www.Investor-Edge.com/NGD-03Nov2014

Randgold Resources Ltd’s stock declined 2.59%, to close the day at $58.21, hitting a new 52-week low of $58.00. The stock recorded a trading volume of 2.29 million shares, much above its three months average volume of 0.76 million shares. The stock oscillated between $58.00 and $59.39 during the session. Over the last three trading sessions and over the past one month, Randgold Resources Ltd’s shares have declined 10.36% and 13.88%, respectively. Further, the stock has lost 7.32% since the start of this year. The company’s stock closed below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The stock’s 200-day moving average of $77.44 is above its 50-day moving average of $71.42. Additionally, Randgold Resources Ltd has an RSI of 27.33. The complimentary notes on GOLD can be downloaded as in PDF format at:

http://www.Investor-Edge.com/GOLD-03Nov2014

On Friday, shares in Golden Star Resources Ltd recorded a trading volume of 1.70 million shares, higher than its three months average volume of 0.96 million shares. The stock ended the day at $0.27, which was 6.90% below its previous day’s closing of $0.29, and registered an intraday range of $0.26 and $0.30. Golden Star Resources Ltd’s shares have lost 12.90% in the previous three trading sessions, 34.23% in the last one month and 38.64% on YTD basis. The company’s stock closed below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $0.41 and $0.56, respectively. Furthermore, shares of Golden Star Resources Ltd have an RSI of 16.88. Register for free on Investor-Edge and access the latest research on GSS at:

http://www.Investor-Edge.com/GSS-03Nov2014

Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA’s stock plummeted 8.64%, to close Friday’s session at $9.20, after oscillating between $9.04 and $9.89. The stock recorded a trading volume of 3.67 million shares, above its three months average volume of 1.63 million shares. Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA’s shares have declined 14.18% in the previous three trading sessions and 18.66% in the last one month. Additionally, from the beginning of 2014, the stock has lost 18.00%. The company’s stock closed below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The stock’s 50-day moving average of $12.11 is above its 200-day moving average of $12.05. Further, the stock has an RSI of 23.98. On the same day, Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA announced its Q3 FY 2014 financial results. For Q4 FY 2014, the company reported net income attributable to Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA of $78.3 million, or $0.31 per diluted share. The complete research on BVN is available for free at:

http://www.Investor-Edge.com/BVN-03Nov2014

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd’s stock finished Friday’s session 5.05% lower at $23.50, hitting a 52-week low of $22.20. A total of 5.31 million shares were traded, which was above its three months average volume of 2.33 million shares. The stock moved between $22.20 and $24.00 during the session. Over the last three trading sessions and the previous one month, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd’s shares have plummeted 20.31% and 22.42%, respectively. Additionally, from the beginning of 2014, the stock has declined 10.92%. The company’s shares closed below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Moreover, the stock’s 200-day moving average of $33.33 is greater than its 50-day moving average of $31.60. Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd’s stock has an RSI of 27.76. Free in depth research on AEM is available at:

http://www.Investor-Edge.com/AEM-03Nov2014

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At Investor-Edge, we provide our members with a simple and reliable way to leverage our economy of scale. Most investors do not have time to track all publicly traded companies, much less perform an in-depth review and analysis of the complexities contained in each situation. That’s where Investor-Edge comes in. We provide a single unified platform for investors’ to hear about what matters. Situation alerts, moving events, and upcoming opportunities.

===============

EDITOR’S NOTES:

===============

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domingo, 2 de noviembre de 2014

AngloGold Ashanti (AU) Stock Drops to One-Year Low as Gold Prices Decline





Andrew Meola

10/30/14 – 03:29 PM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Shares of AngloGold Ashanti 
(AU)  fell more than 6% to a 52-week low of $8.47 on Thursday as gold prices dropped to less than $1,200 an ounce for the first time since October 3.

Gold for December delivery fell 2.2% to $1,198.60 an ounce. The decline stemmed partially from the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would end its QE3 bond buying program.

The news that the Fed had nixed the stimulus program indicated its confidence in the recovery of the U.S. economy, which grew 3.5% in the third quarter thanks to an increase in exports and federal spending.

Must Read: Warren Buffett’s 25 Favorite Stocks

STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more.

More than 4.7 million shares had changed hands as of 3:27 p.m., compared to the average volume of 2,534,990.

Separately, TheStreet Ratings team rates ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD as a “sell” with a ratings score of D+. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

“We rate ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD (AU) a SELL. This is driven by multiple weaknesses, which we believe should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. The company’s weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its generally high debt management risk, poor profit margins and generally disappointing historical performance in the stock itself.”

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.24 is relatively high when compared with the industry average, suggesting a need for better debt level management.
  • The gross profit margin for ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD is currently lower than what is desirable, coming in at 33.14%. It has decreased from the same quarter the previous year. Along with this, the net profit margin of -5.91% is significantly below that of the industry average.
  • AU’s stock share price has done very poorly compared to where it was a year ago: Despite any rallies, the net result is that it is down by 38.71%, which is also worse that the performance of the S&P 500 Index. Investors have so far failed to pay much attention to the earnings improvements the company has managed to achieve over the last quarter. Naturally, the overall market trend is bound to be a significant factor. However, in one sense, the stock’s sharp decline last year is a positive for future investors, making it cheaper (in proportion to its earnings over the past year) than most other stocks in its industry. But due to other concerns, we feel the stock is still not a good buy right now.
  • The company’s current return on equity greatly increased when compared to its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a signal of significant strength within the corporation. Compared to other companies in the Metals & Mining industry and the overall market, ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD’s return on equity significantly trails that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
  • ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD reported significant earnings per share improvement in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. This company has reported somewhat volatile earnings recently. But, we feel it is poised for EPS growth in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD swung to a loss, reporting -$6.07 versus $1.70 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($0.51 versus -$6.07).
  • You can view the full analysis from the report here: AU Ratings Report

STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more.

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Randgold Resources: Total Voting Rights


JERSEY, CHANNEL ISLANDS–(Marketwired – Oct 31, 2014) – Randgold Resources (LSE: RRS) (NASDAQ: GOLD)

RANDGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

 
Incorporated in Jersey, Channel Islands

 Reg. No. 62686

 LSE Trading Symbol: RRS

 NASDAQ Trading Symbol: GOLD

 (“Randgold Resources” or the “Company”)

TOTAL VOTING RIGHTS

London, 31 October 2014 – Randgold Resources announces that in accordance with the Disclosure and Transparency Rules, its issued share capital consists of: 92 724 116 ordinary shares of US$0.05 each.

Each ordinary share carries the right to one vote in relation to all circumstances at general meetings of Randgold Resources. In addition, 62 399 ordinary shares are currently held on trust and do not confer voting rights. Therefore, the total number of voting rights in the Company is 92 661 717.

The above figure can be used by shareholders (and others with notification obligations) as the denominator for the calculations by which to determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in, Randgold Resources under the Disclosure and Transparency Rules.

RANDGOLD RESOURCES ENQUIRIES:

Chief Executive   Financial Director   Investor & Media Relations
Mark Bristow   Graham Shuttleworth   Kathy du Plessis
+44 788 071 1386   +44 1534 735 333   +44 20 7557 7738
+44 779 775 2288   +44 779 771 1338   Email: randgold@dpapr.com

Website: www.randgoldresources.com

Contact:

RNS
Customer
Services
0044-207797-4400
rns@londonstockexchange.com
http://www.rns.com

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sábado, 1 de noviembre de 2014

Midday movers: AbbVie, Barrick Gold, Clorox & more

Chevron – The oil producer rose after reporting a bigger-than-expected quarterly profit.

Clorox – The maker of cleaning products edged higher after posting better-than-expected quarterly sales.

Exxon Mobil – The oil producer climbed after reporting a better-than-expected third-quarter profit.

Gilead Sciences – The drug maker fell on weaker-than-expected sales of its treatment for Hepatitis C.

Honeywell International – The manufacturer edged up after increasing its annual dividend to $2.07 a share.

Mead Johnson Nutrition – The maker of infant formula fell on news French food company Danone purchased a $566 million stake in a Chinese infant formula maker, dampening speculation it would try to acquire Mead Johnson.

Priceline Group – The online travel company and rival Orbitz Worldwide gained on Expedia’s strong earnings.

Rockwell Collins – The maker of aircraft systems rose after reporting quarterly sales increased by about 15 percent year over year.

Sony – The maker of electronic equipment rose after posting a smaller-than-expected operating loss in its second quarter.

United Continental Holdings – The carrier and others including Delta Air Lines, American Airlines Group, Spirit Airlines and Southwest Airlines rose as oil prices fell.

Visa – The payment processing company rose after Argus Research upgraded the stock to buy from hold.

(See CNBC’s Market Insider Blog)

Questions? Comments? Email us at marketinsider@cnbc.com

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This chart will scare gold bugs


A strong dollar took gold to four-year lows Friday. And if one technician's chart work is to believed, it could get a lot worse.

Friday was one of the worst percentage days of the year for gold and its decline saw it violate some key technical levels.

View gallery

.

"Gold is in trouble," warns Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com. "Gold has broken down pretty significantly."

In particular, Gordon is worried that Friday's price action is part of a much bigger retracement that began four years ago. "Technically speaking, we need to look at the rally that we've seen in gold since around 2001," he said, noting that bullion went from a low of $255 per ounce that year to more than $1,900 per ounce 10 years later.

View gallery

.

"A very typical, normal pullback would be about the 50 percent retracement," said Gordon, a CNBC contributor. That puts Gordon's target at  about $700 an ounce, coinciding with gold's 2008 bottom.

"We have significantly lower to go," he said.

Fundamentally, Bob Iaccino, chief market strategist at Tethys Partners, sees no reason to own gold.

"Gold longs are in a bit of a pickle," he said. While physical purchases in China and India continue, Iaccino expects to see purchases by gold-backed funds decline. "They probably have covered some of those positions in this particular move down."  

Given the recent strength of the dollar the fact that central banks around the world are debasing their currencies, Iaccino sees no hurry to buy bullion.

"Fundamentally, gold is weak," he said.

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jueves, 30 de octubre de 2014

The World According to ZIRP

Over the rails we fell. 

As if the labyrinth and tentacles of the financial crisis wasn't already hard enough to handle, we suddenly found ourselves waist deep in lifeboats – navigating those treacherous seas, from well beyond the comforts of the visible horizon. With almost six years of floating now between us and that long December, the curvature in the markets – so relied on in navigating previous cycles, is more than difficult to discern these days. 

The world is as flat as ZIRP. 

What this has meant in the markets, is participants continue to have a tough time finding their bearings, when it comes to what the Fed will do next and where they are situated in the cycle. The expectation gap we noted over the past month is a direct effect of these esoteric market conditions that began with ZIRP – and which only were heightened as the Fed first pivoted to end quantitative easing in May 2013. With the Fed on deck this week wrapping up what we expect will be the final disposition of the taper, participants continue to speculate where and when the next policy move will be made. 

“Yes, but when will they tighten?”, they ask. 

To a large degree – it's already happened. While the fed funds rate has not moved higher since finding ZIRP, the differentials in yields have already compensated from beyond the mystical plane – and in effect, tightened over the past two years. It began with the first mention of the taper in the spring of 2013 and should be completed with the final crumbs of QE3 dispensed this month. As shown below with the relative performance between 5 and 10-year yields, a massive move higher has discretely taken place over the past two years – despite the fed funds rate remaining pegged at ZIRP. We chose to highlight and contrast the relative performance between 5 and 10-year yields, as the shorter duration of the market has been disproportionally influenced by ZIRP and offers relatively no comparative value in our opinion. I.e. – the fallacy found today in waiting for an inverted yield curve to signal that a bear market approaches in the equity markets  211; or that a recession is near.

That said, naturally, yields along the shorter end of the market tend to either "outperform" or "underperform" longer term yields as the Fed moves between tightening or easing monetary policy. When the Fed tightens, shorter term yields outperform – and vice versa, as they ease. Historically speaking, the long-term relative performance range between 5 and 10-year yields was maintained until 2002 – and closely correlated with the disposition trend of the fed funds rate.

Click to enlarge images

Following the attacks on September 11th, 2001 – the Fed continued to ease and the relative performance trend in yields broke below the previous cycle lows from the early 1990's – eventually bringing the fed funds rate down to 1.0 percent by June 2003. Several months later, the downtrend was subsequently reversed, as the Fed removed the assurances that rates would remain low for a "considerable period" in January 2004. By the end of June of that year, the Fed had begun to gradually raise rates. Less than two years later – in February 2006, the relative performance differential between 5 and 10-year yields had reached its peak and foreshadowed the end of the rate tightening cycle later that June.
As the Fed ran out of road to maneuver in December 2008, further rounds of quantitative easing were enacted to push policy beyond where the visible horizon was seen. This in turn pushed the relative performance trend in yields well below the previous cycle lows in 2003. 

From a comparative perspective to the current cycle, the signal to the markets from the Fed in January 2004 is analogous to the taper-talks that began in earnest in May 2013. Both prepared the markets for the eventual curtailment of accommodative policy and both ended the relative outperformance of long-term yields. Obviously, the most significant difference between then and now was participants knew tightening was taking place – as the fed funds rate clearly rose on the horizon. 

Led by the move in 5-year yields, the historic relative performance rally has brought the trend back to levels directly preceding ZIRP – as well as the previous cycle lows from 2003. We can not overstate how large of a move was accomplished over the past two years and illustrates the murky conditions that participants continue to get mired in as calls for more conventional tightening by the Fed have been greatly misplaced this year. We would speculate the massive and violent nature of the moves in the Treasury market two weeks ago, represented the exhaustion of this significant uptrend and displayed how offsides participants have been positioned in the market this year. 

Generally speaking, the massive move in 5-year yields is now following in the leading footsteps of the crest and breakdown in 10-year yields coming into this year. The relative symmetry in performance extremes (at both the top and bottom of the range) that we had pointed out last December in 10-year yields, is now replicating along the shorter end of the market at the top of its range. Despite expressing a significant lag to the move in 10-year yields – the takeaways are just the same: yields are low by historic standards – but remain stretched to a relative extreme. 

Since the end of last December, we have referenced the chart below as indication that gold relative to long-term yields was expressing conditions indicative of significant lows in the past. And while those lows have not been undercut over the past year, gold has completed a round-trip back to testing those levels as the commodity markets have come under pressure from various macro crosswinds – and yields along the shorter end of the market have cut across the grain.  

Interestingly, the rare market condition in the past in which longer term yields relative to gold and shorter term yields relative to gold, have dropped out of tight correlation with each other – have marked the end of the consolidation range for gold. 
With bearish sentiment in gold continuing to build and the expectation gap towards further tightening recently slammed shut, we continue to like the long-term prospects of the yellow metal, as long-term yields should begin to outperform as further tightening is pushed back on the horizon. 

The world is indeed flat – flat as ZIRP.

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martes, 28 de octubre de 2014

Rangold Resources: Notification of Major Interest in Shares


JERSEY, CHANNEL ISLANDS–(Marketwired – Oct 28, 2014) –  Rangold Resources (LSE: RRS) (NASDAQ: GOLD)

RANDGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED
Incorporated in Jersey, Channel Islands

Reg. No. 62686

LSE Trading Symbol: RRS

Nasdaq Trading Symbol: GOLD

(“Randgold Resources” or the “Company”)

London, 28 October 2014

TR-1: NOTIFICATION OF MAJOR INTEREST IN SHARESi
1. Identity of the issuer or the underlying issuer of existing shares to which voting rights are attached:ii Randgold Resources Limited
2. Reason for the notification (please tick the appropriate box or boxes):
An acquisition or disposal of voting rights X
An acquisition or disposal of qualifying financial instruments which may result in the acquisition of shares already issued to which voting rights are attached  
An acquisition or disposal of instruments with similar economic effect to qualifying financial instruments  
An event changing the breakdown of voting rights  
Other (please specify):  
3. Full name of person(s) subject to the notification obligation:iii BlackRock, Inc.
4. Full name of shareholder(s) (if different from 3.):iv  
5. Date of the transaction and date on which the threshold is crossed or reached:v 24th October 2014
6. Date on which issuer notified: 27th October 2014
7. Threshold(s) that is/are crossed or reached: vi, vii Holding has gone above 16%
8. Notified details:
A: Voting rights attached to sharesviii, ix
Class/

type

of

shares

if

possible

using

the

ISIN

CODE

  Situation

previous

to the

triggering

transaction
Resulting situation after the triggering transaction
Number

of

Shares
  Number

of

Voting

Rights
Number

of

shares
Number

of

voting

rights
  %

of

voting

rights
x
Direct Direct
xi
Indirect
xii
  Direct Indirect
GB00B01C3S32   14,811,371   14,811,371 N/A N/A 14,791,281   N/A 15.96%
B: Qualifying Financial Instruments
Resulting situation after the triggering transaction
Type

of

financial

instrument
Expiration

date
xiii
  Exercise/

Conversion

Period
xiv
Number

of

voting

rights

that

may be

acquired

if the

instrument

is

exercised/

converted.
%

of

voting

rights
           
 
C: Financial Instruments with similar economic effect to Qualifying Financial Instruments xv, xvi
Resulting situation after the triggering transaction
Type

of

financial

instrument
Exercise

price
Expiration date
xvii
Exercise/

Conversion period
xviii
Number

of

voting

rights

instrument

refers

to
%

of

voting

rights
xix, xx
          Nominal Delta
CFD 13,850 0.01% 0.01%
Total (A+B+C)
Number of voting rights Percentage of voting rights
14,805,131 15.98%
 
9. Chain of controlled undertakings through which the voting rights and/or the financial instruments are effectively held, if applicable: xxi
 
Proxy Voting:
10. Name of the proxy holder:  
11. Number of voting rights proxy holder will cease to hold:  
12. Date on which proxy holder will cease to hold voting rights:  
13. Additional information: BlackRock Regulatory Threshold Reporting Team
14. Contact name: Gareth Slade
15. Contact telephone number: 020 7743 2536
Annex: Notification of major interests in sharesxxii
A: Identity of the persons or legal entity subject to the notification obligation
Full name (including legal form of legal entities) BlackRock, Inc.
Contact address (registered office for legal entities) 55 East 52nd Street, New York, NY 10055
United States of America
Phone number & email 020 7743 2536
EMEAdisclsoure@blackrock.com
Other useful information (at least legal representative for legal persons) Gareth Slade
B: Identity of the notifier, if applicable
Full name Martin Welsh
Contact address Randgold Resources Limited
3rd Floor, Unity Chambers
28 Halkett Street
St. Helier
Jersey
JE2 4WJ
Phone number & email +44 1534 735 333
martin.welsh@randgold.com
Other useful information(e.g. functional relationship with the person or legal entity subject to the notification obligation)  
C: Additional information
 
 
Contact:

RNS
Customer Services
0044-207797-4400
rns@londonstockexchange.com
http://www.rns.com

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