Gold hasn't been shining recently.
The yellow metal fell yet again this past week. In fact, it has closed lower for its third week in a row. Its 5.1 percent loss during that period is its worst three-week performance since Nov. 7.
Things have been tough for bullion for quite some time already. The World Gold Council reported on Thursday that the demand for physical gold in the form of coins and bars were at five-year lows in 2014. The price for the metal is now trading where it was at the start of last year.
According to one portfolio advisor, gold's recent decline will continue because of an appreciating dollar and because of an increase demand for stocks and bonds.
"Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so as the U.S. dollar goes up against other currencies, gold becomes much more expensive for investors outside of the U.S.," explained Erin Gibbs, equity chief investment officer at S&P Capital IQ Global Markets Intelligence. "That helps keep the price of gold down."
Since the start of the second half of last year, the U.S. Dollar Index – a basket of several major currencies versus the greenback – has soared 18 percent. Gibbs, who has over $15 billion in assets under advisory, also sees record-high stocks and a rallying global bond market as hurting gold.
"Gold is really just used as a safe haven when you see a lot of turmoil and uncertainty in either the equity or bond market," she said. "Though we may not have great stories right now, we don't have a lot of turmoil. It's actually pretty stable."
"Between these two effects, we're really going to see a continued bearish trend," concluded Gibbs.
The technicals are also grim for gold, according to one leading technical analyst.
"You're still making a series of lower lows and lower highs off of the peak since 2011," said Craig Johnson, senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray. He views the gold's run-up earlier this year as nothing more than a relief rally that will face downtrend resistance, currently at $1,350 per troy ounce.
And that spells trouble for bullion.
"The downside objective is going to be about $1,050," warns Johnson, who is also president of the Markets Technicians Association. "That could probably be reached this year."
Johnson agrees with Gibbs that part of the reason for gold's impending doom will be due to other markets' success.
"The secular bull market that we have been calling for and that is really unfolding is still very much on track," he said. "Gold is not going to participate, and I would step aside."
- Commodity Markets
- Markets & Exchanges
- World Gold Council
- price of gold
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